After invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union, the UK is due to withdraw its membership from the EU (Brexit) in 2019. Depending on the outcome of current negotiations, the UK might lose its tariff-free access to the EU single market. In that case, all economic activities between the UK and the EU (including trade in goods) will have to be subject to new tariffs and other border measures. Agricultural markets in the EU as well as in the UK would be exposed to potentially significant impacts and the impacts of Brexit may also affect agricultural markets in the rest of the world.
In this study we assess the economic and environmental impacts of Brexit with a comparative static analysis, focusing on agricultural supply in Europe and global food markets. We employ the CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact Modelling System) for the analysis, by developing plausible scenarios regarding future trade and domestic agricultural policy options after Brexit. With the scenario analysis, we aim to identify potentially vulnerable sectors and regions, as well as potential winners of Brexit, also considering the global players on agri-food markets.
This project will be conducted in cooperation with University of Bonn (Germany) and the Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (Norway). It is expected to end in Spring in 2019.