Extreme weather events at sea is becoming increasingly common due to climate change. In this project, we analyse how Swedish fishing is impacted by marine heatwaves through a combination of biological and economic simulation models. The case study focuses on fishing in the Baltic Sea, with focus on herring in the Bothnian Sea. Heatwaves are expected to directly affect marine food webs, and thus both the biomass of fish stocks and the size distribution of the fish. This, in turn, affects fishing through changes in fishing opportunities, which may vary greatly between e.g. large-scale and small-scale fisheries. The results are used in dialogues with authorities and stakeholders to analyse climate risks for fishing and how these can be managed. The economic analysis is conducted using a bioeconomic model (Fish-PAL), where the economics of the fishing sector is studied based on changes in fish stocks.

The project is funded by Formas and is carried out in collaboration with the Department of Aquatic Resources at SLU. The project will be completed by 2027.