A new trade agreement between the EU and the Mercosur countries—Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay—has been signed and is awaiting ratification. The agreement is expected to increase trade by reducing trade barriers between the regions, creating both new export opportunities and intensified import competition for companies in the EU. There is particular concern that the agreement may have negative consequences for the EU agricultural sector, partly due to differences in environmental requirements between the EU and the Mercosur countries.

In this project, we examine trade relations with Mercosur and the potential effects of the free trade agreement on the agricultural and food sectors in the EU and Sweden. Trade statistics are used to identify which goods are primarily traded between Sweden and Mercosur, as well as between the EU and Mercosur prior to the agreement entering into force. The statistics are also used to map which food and agricultural products constitute key global exports for Mercosur. In addition, model simulations using the CAPRI model are conducted to assess the expected effects of the agreement on EU trade and agricultural production.

The project will be completed in autumn 2026.