AgriFood Working Paper 2019:1

European agriculture after Brexit. Does anyone benefit from the divorce?


Authors: Hyung-sik Choi  Torbjörn Jansson  Alan Matthews  Klaus Mittenzwei  Mihaly Himics  Lisa Höglind 


UK’s exit (Brexit) from the EU could entail disturbances in agri-food markets. This study analyses three different Brexit scenarios with increasing barriers to trade (EEA+, FTA, WTO), employing the EU focused global agricultural sector model CAPRI. In the UK, food prices will increase, making consumers in the UK the biggest losers. However, provided trade costs are kept low, termination of the contribution to the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the gains to producers from higher food prices could offset the losses to consumers. In the EU, declining food prices would benefit consumers but reduce farmers’ incomes.

For a short Policy Brief based on this article see AgriFood Policy Brief 2019:3

Authors:


Hyung-sik Choi


Torbjörn Jansson

Alan Matthews

Klaus Mittenzwei

Mihaly Himics

Lisa Höglind